Pick a door to begin the game.
Door 1
1
Door 2
2
Door 3
3

Switch Strategy

0Wins
0Games

Stay Strategy

0Wins
0Games

Win Rate Comparison

Switch
Theory: 66.7%
Stay
Theory: 33.3%

Want to see the law of large numbers in action? Run the simulation automatically:

Why does switching win more often?

When you first pick a door, there's a 1/3 chance you've picked the car and a 2/3 chance the car is behind one of the other two doors.

The host then must open a door with a goat — this is the crucial constraint. He can never reveal the car, and he can never open your door. So that entire 2/3 probability that was split across two doors now collapses onto the single remaining door.

Staying gives you your original 1/3 odds. Switching gives you 2/3. Play enough rounds above, and you'll see the numbers converge on exactly this.